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looking for opinions on the "true bv" of a couple graded basketball cards

cmcjr99

All-Star
525
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1976-77 milwaukee bucks playing cards alex english

the set contains 4 cards of english (predating his true rookie card by a full three years) ....TOTAL psa populations of the four cards is a mere 6 copies , broken down as follows :

5 of clubs - 2 graded , both psa 10 (i own one of them)
5 of spades - 1 graded , psa 9 (i own it)
10 of hearts - 1 graded , psa 10 (i own it)
10 of diamonds - 2 graded , 1 psa 9 , 1 psa 10 (i own both of them)


raw beckett values (same for all 4 cards) :

mint $25.00
nm-mt+ $15.00
nm-mt $15.00
nm $10.00 ------------> this is hi column beckett


neither beckett nor the psa smr price guide has graded values (obviously due to the extreme scarcity of them in graded form....)

in an effort to derive a semi-accurate value , i've compared them to his true rookie card

1979-80 topps #31 alex english rc

raw beckett values :
mint $30.00
nm-mt+ $18.00
nm-mt $18.00
nm $12.00 ------------> this is hi column beckett

graded values :

beckett :
gem mint (10) - not priced
mint (9) $60.00
nm-mt (8) $15.00
nm (7) $10.00

psa smr guide :
gem mint (10) - $250.00
mint (9) $45.00
nm-mt (8) $9.00
nm (7) not priced


based on this data , it would seem this pre-rookie card generally has a BV of roughly 80% of his true RC in RAW form....

edit to add : also , with beckett not pricing the gem mint 10's there is a bit more to determine....beckett has the nm-mt 8 priced 67% higher than the psa guide and has the mint 9 valued at 33% over the psa guide....based on this , would it be safe to assume the beckett BOOK value for a gem mint 10 would likely be 30-60% more than the psa guide , making it something like $325 to $400 ?

if we held that same generalization to the graded cards , we could see the psa 10's running in the 200-225 range with the psa 9's checking in the $35-50 range....

the tricky part (and why i'm seeking the opinions of a few others) is when you take populations into consideration....

the psa population report shows that there are 331 english rookie cards graded :
10 - 7
9 - 68
9Q - 6
8.5 - 1
8 - 170
8Q - 13
7.5 - 1
7 - 45
7Q - 2
6.5 - 2
6 - 13
4 - 3

quite a few more than the pre-rookie....


the true rookie card still holds solid value in graded form , but is not exactly impossible to find in high grades so this is where those population reports come into play....with populations of either 1 or 2 (as opposed to 7 for the true rookie) , i'm inclined to say the "true bv" of the psa 10's would likely fall in the $300-500 range (lower end for the one with a pop of 2 , upper limit for the 2 with pops of 1)....with populations of EXACTLY 1 for each of the two graded as mint 9 (compared to 68 of the true rookie) i'm thinking along the lines of $75-100 as the "true bv"....


so now is where i seek the opinions of those who deal more with graded material , especially vintage items with ultra low populations.....are my projections even remotely close ? am i unrealistically high ? or am i actually underestimating them ? .....i realize actual CASH VALUES and SALE PRICES REALIZED can vary by a wide margin in EITHER direction , especially with such low pop cards , and i would also be interested in hearing opinions on those figures as well , but bear in mind , for now i'm just trying to estimate their true BOOK VALUES

any opinions are welcome ....even if they hurt my feelings ;-)
 
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cmcjr99

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got excited last week when i saw this thread had a reply - well , until i saw the reply .....

sitting here on a sunday trying to get some cardwork done including digging up some of my old sale/trade threads and saw this and figured i may as well bump it up to see if anyone has any input for me....
 

Loyalty32

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Claude - I honestly have no idea. When I come across a card that puts me in the situation you're in, I list it on eBay with a high BIN/BO (that I would be happy with if someone hit the BIN) and see what kind of offers that I get. I just did it with a 1979 Topps POP 1 card that I subbed myself and was very happy with the result. Best of luck!

Thanks
Craig
 

cmcjr99

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hey craig....

i was ecstatic to pick up the 5 i have.....the guy i won them from was working on his psa registry set....if memory serves me correctly , of the 54 different cards in the set , he had 51 graded and i believe almost all were either a 9 or 10.....not sure why , but at some time last year he auctioned off practically every one.....i got all 5 of his english cards (which are the highest bv cards in the set)....i peek in on the psa site from time to time for both pop reports and to see thier price guide compared to the beckett pricing....the last time i checked , he was still hailed as having the all-time AND current number 1 registry set (with both numbers equal indicating that what he had as current was at its high point) even though it was obvious that 95% of the cards were no longer together in his possession....

the only thing that bummed me out...as you know i am a HUGE collector of ANYTHING and EVERYTHING related to my south carolina gamecocks....in searching the psa pop reports for this set i discovered that in addition to alex english , brian winters was also in this set....a little looking around led me to the bio of the owner of the top ranked set....the main focus of his collection ? BRIAN-FREAKIN-WINTERS....and naturally those were the only ones he was keeping from this graded set he had nearly completed.........i will NEVER find his 4 cards from this set , either raw or graded....

as for putting this one up on ebay with a high BIN...i've been thinking of doing that for a while but just can't pull the trigger despite my dire situation right now....on the one hand , it is a 9 and i'd still have the 10 , but on the other hand , as it stands right now i have the only two (psa) graded copies period....pretty neat , especially considering they are relatively obscure card released 2 years before his true RC and feature such a great player (imagine his hobby appeal and BV's if he'd come along 10-20 years later).....
 

Loyalty32

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Claude - Interesting read. Just remember, the difference in a POP 1 and POP 2 can be HUGE in regards to value. You could always sell the 9 and then buy another one if the pop report increases and one becomes available. If it doesn't, you still have the 10!

Thanks
Craig
 

cmcjr99

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Claude - Interesting read. Just remember, the difference in a POP 1 and POP 2 can be HUGE in regards to value. You could always sell the 9 and then buy another one if the pop report increases and one becomes available. If it doesn't, you still have the 10!

Thanks
Craig


no doubt ....

i do think in either case the true value should be pretty strong....after all , with 4 different alex english cards in the set , there is still only a TOTAL of 6 graded - period.....the true RC has more psa 10's than that and more than 55 TIMES AS MANY graded.....

was thinking of posting my original post on another site just to see if i can find any more input....since i made the move from the old beckett boards , MOST of my internet card activity has been limited to ebay and the bench.....i'll occasionally stumble across something on another site (usually blowout it seems) when googling around for info and i just recently started dropping back in on the beckett forum and the other beckett offshoot (fcb).....it seems that most everyone from HERE is also THERE ....i actually thought the bench was more heavily populated back when i settled in here but at least on the surface it seems there is more traffic there for now....off hand , do you know of any other places that have enough knowledgeable members that i might be able to find an answer or at least some opinions ?
 

valediction

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Keep in mind, playing card type issues often grade higher due to the rounded 'corners' being less susceptible to wear. People may not be aware of how scarce they are in any form, thus demand may be more limited than a mainstream test issue.
 
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