1st rounder ratings drop

[redsoxfan1979]

Am I missing something here or is this a Mets curse.

Jesus Randin 13 13 12 4 stars two years later 12 12 10 2 stars

Ryan Wolfe Wolfe 12 15 7 5 stars 2 years later 7 11 2 1 star

Dorian Flannagan 5 stars to 3 stars no ratings drop

Leon Estrada 4 stars 11 13 10 when I traded for him he dropped to 10 8 7 and 1 star


Mike Tinker 12 14 11 year later 11 12 10

These are just a few that have popped up but I'm noticing a consistent trend here. I also contribute 6.5 million a year to player development.

 

[kendalld99]

Does your minor leagues get there water from Kansas City??? LOL!!!!

Only thing that I see is that your AA team finished in last place and your players morale are down or angry... That will make them not care and under perform, which will drop there talents.. Everyone asks me why my minor league players have so many stars or high talents, it is because my teams are usually in the playoffs and have a winning season every year. I also do not rush my players to the next level... Look at CF Wallace in AAA..
I started him in MLB this season and he struggled. Sent him back down and he demolished AAA pitching (Batted .408 with 97.8 VORP, #11- Top 100 prospects). Wallace is coming back up this sim to try and get me into the MLB playoffs(he is not playoff eligible), then go back down until 2016 spring training..

 

[cjay101]

Some of what Kendall says holds merit regarding performance.

Some of it is based on teams hurrying prospects to the majors.

The vast majority of it is pure blind unluckiness. Go search the 1st Round for any given year in real life and tell me if half of the players performed to their pick level expectations? 20% maybe?

Example:

2013 1 8 8 Hunter Dozier (minors) SS --- jury is out.
2013 1 34 34 Sean Manaea (minors) LHP --- potential is there for frontline starter if healthy.
2012 1 5 5 Kyle Zimmer (minors) RHP --- potential is there for 2-4 starter
2011 1 5 5 Bubba Starling (minors) OF --- young, but has struggled mightily.
2010 1 4 4 Christian Colon (minors) SS --- wash out considering he was 4th overall
2009 1 12 12 Aaron Crow (minors) RHP --- serviceable RELIEF pitcher, not worth 12th overall
2008 1 3 3 Eric Hosmer (minors) 1B --- stud worth the pick, did struggle last year and early this season
2008 1 36 36 Mike Montgomery (minors) LHP --- traded in Shields deal, still trying to recapture control.
2007 1 2 2 Mike Moustakas (minors) --- from what he has shown so far, well overdrafted. Struggles a lot.
2006 1 1 1 Luke Hochevar (minors) RHP --- complete washout at SP. Become serviable RP this year.
2005 1 2 2 Alex Gordon (minors) 3B --- took 5 years to come out of his shell and become a star.
2004 1 14 14 Billy Butler (minors) 3B --- one tool, a bat.
2004 1 29 29 *Matt Campbell (minors) --- washout
2004 1s 31 31 *J.P. Howell (minors) --- made a decent back-end starter /relief after leaving KC
2003 1 5 5 Chris Lubanski (minors) OF ---washout
2003 1 30 30 *Mitch Maier (minors) C --- servicable 4th OF until non-tendered
2002 1 6 6 Zack Greinke (minors) RHP --- obviously a CY Young winner
2001 1 9 9 Colt Griffin (minors) RHP --- washout
2000 1 4 4 Mike Stodolka (minors) LHP --- washout

To me, that's 8 "plus" picks and 11 "questionable/washout" picks in a 13 year period in the first round. An even then, that is counting the last 3 year's picks in the "plus" picks only because of lack of time to judge!

 

[spartanfan1]

Hmm, maybe there is some sort of Mets curse with 1st rounders! I went back through my first round picks and have had a few increases, but definitely more decreases:

2009 Mike Minor - increased one potential point in both movement and control and turned from a 3-star into a 4 star
2010 Eric Mason - increased 1 pt. in CON, POW, EYE and went from 3.5 to 4.5 stars
2011 Al Burden - lost 2 pts in GAP and EYE and dropped a half star
2012 Jose Morales - lost 1 CON, 2 GAP, 2 POW, and 1 EYE but only dropped a half star
2013 Carl Clemow - lost 2 CON, 1 POW, 2 EYE and went from 4 stars down to 2.5
2014 Cory Norman - lost 3 CON and a full star rating
2015 John Griffin - already lost 1 CON

Luckily they aren't getting crushed with ratings declines, more just minor drops - but I'd still rather have it go the other way!

Eric

 

[HeboAlan]

Mike, I hear yah bro. Every prospect I get for the most part falls apart. I bring in McKenzie CF he is already fallen from a 4 1/2 star to a 2 1/2 star player. He's not the first or probley the last that doesn't make me want to have much faith in prospects when everyone always seems to fall apart after looking like there the next coming. I know they can't all pan out but if you have 3 or 4 guys who are 4 star or higher that you plan on being big parts of your team I would be shocked if 2 of them panned out in anyway more then a serviceable player from what I have seen.

 

[valediction]

It happens, look at Madison Bumgarner on the Padres, was a 4.5 star player at draft, then 4 star, he went to one star this year at 25 years old. Was the ace of my staff for a while, now he's a serviceable #4 for me.

Just adds to the realism for me. Remember, plenty of high draft picks miss every year. Look at 1994 first round, the top 11 picks had a combined WAR of about 35, picks 12-14 averaged about 32 WAR each, and the last 14 combined for another 10 WAR for their careers. If you count the supplemental round 6 of the 34 players had a career WAR above what Mike Trout put up last season alone ( I counted Todd Walker as one of those, technically he's at 10.5, but it was within spitting distance) Roughly one out of six picks panned out with even marginal success.