ANOTHER commentary on how I think the hobby is broken!

[mrmopar]

Yeah, I had to do it.

I recently stumbled upon a sell/trade thread and saw a card I had mild interest in. The card itself was more interesting than the player or the autograph itself for me, as it was a certified Mariner card, a one time AS and a player I didn't have a signature from yet. I suppose this player has the potential to be a break-out star someday, as he is only 24. His autographs are not scarce, but perhaps certified copies are.

Anyway, this player had the following stat line as a 24 year old outfielder in the AL:

149 G
581 AB
76 R
165 H
25 2B
5 3B
19 HR
65 RBI
7 SB
119 K
.284 BA

Nothing staggering, but decent, yet one of his RC autos is apparently worth $120? I can only assume it is a SP, because this guy is no Albert Pujols!

Perhaps I have lost touch with all of the new, more expensive issues, the SPs and the other assorted trickery that makes these cards "worth" so much. Perhaps I am just cynical and assume this players career will settle in around the numbers he is producing now and won't excite much more than Chili Davis does anyone now!

Thanks to BB Reference, here is who this guy looks like so far...or is most similar to:

Herbert Perry
Sam Jethroe
Dwight Smith
Dick Kokos
Jody Gerut
Ernie Koy
Pedro Munoz
Johnny Rizzo
Rocco Baldelli
Matt Mieske

Through age 24, he looks a little better to his closest comparisons, but still...

Chili Davis
Dave Winfield
Reggie Smith
Corey Patterson
Sixto Lezcano
Ron Northey
Rick Monday
Lee Mazzilli
Ruppert Jones
Mark Kotsay

Nothing too exciting there, but Winfield. How can the demand be that great now??? Prospecting? The newest hot player? WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY MENTALITY?

I don't know what to think, but I am somewhat disappointed that the value is so high, because I do want one and certainly won't pay that kind of money for one.

 

[timfsu2k]

In cases such as that, it's all about the prospecting. A guy comes along who MIGHT end up being pretty solid, or even great, and the prices go through the roof. It's been that way since the boom of the 80s, only instead of paying the insane price of $10 for a '88 Donruss Greg Jefferies, you are looking at $120 for your guy. Same situation, just adjusted for inflation and pack prices.

 

[roxy]

He must have gotten traded. Other then Ichiro there aren't any Mariners that good.

 

[DaClyde]

It's all about the arbitrary pricing by the industry's most popular price guide. It's pretty much guaranteed that they pulled that price from thin air, and then there wasn't enough activity with it for them to bother updating the price.

 

[mrmopar]

I would agree for the most part, but the fact that the price is up there to begin with is the biggest problem. You can get deceased HOFers for less than that...multiples! Now I am sure if the card were to be listed on ebay, it wouldn't come near 1/2 book, if that, but still!

The comparison about the Jefferies is probably true to some extect, but you could still pull a Jefferies with relatively low investment. I think that boom was all about the case busters looking to capitalize on the resale prices the new and "RARE" cards were starting to bring, such as the 84D Mattingly and the 86D Cansecos. Base cards are nowhere near that kind of frenzied pricing anymore, UNLESS they are SPs. Probably because regular cards of quality don't exist the way they used to. If the RC is going to be good, it will be auto'd or an SP. You rarely find a sleeper base card anymore.

 

[JamesNevans]

Even today the same one of one autographed Keith Foulke card gets bumped up in it's High Dollar thread.

 

[mrmopar]

I can understand and appreciate that somewhere, there may be someone who wants Keith Foulk enough to pay a premium for his 1/1s. The demand may not be there for that immediately, but there is someone out there who is crazy for that player.

There are enough sellers who just want to cut their losses and move on, hence the many deals we stumble upon. The demand helps set the price, but any given day of week, that crazed collector of X may be on vacation or having computer problems and that card that normally sells for bank goes for a steal.

For me, it's the cards issued in the 100s or 1000s and more that are not RARE and not that uncommon these days that are worth so much. We witnessed the 90s inserts skyrocket due to short term demand and most have settled down because they are not the next best thing.

Nothing stays up in value forever, but some things should never start "up there" either!

 

[Sabrgeek]

Once I went to BB Ref

And was able to figure out who you were referring to, the thread made more sense.

Adam Jones is a considered a high level prospect, now has two full solid years in the majors by age 24 and has a shot of being a long-term major league star. Apparently he has all the needed tools.

Now, if you could fill us in on which card(s) of his that you think are over-priced, then perhaps an even more logical answer can be provided

Regards
Rich

 

[mrmopar]

I didn't want to call out the specific card, because a member here is offering it up. I left the player off as well for the same reason so as not to deter from his trade efforts.

Jones is the player.

I remember another Jones had all the tools too and caused quite a splash...Andruw Jones. What has he done for us lately and look at his prices!! They always come down, but it's hard to wait sometimes!!

 

[dp33]

I didn't see any mention of it in previous posts, but the price might be impacted by how much the seller got it for in the first place. There was a time when his autos were going for quite a bit.

 

[valediction]

Yeah, I had to do it.

I recently stumbled upon a sell/trade thread and saw a card I had mild interest in. The card itself was more interesting than the player or the autograph itself for me, as it was a certified Mariner card, a one time AS and a player I didn't have a signature from yet. I suppose this player has the potential to be a break-out star someday, as he is only 24. His autographs are not scarce, but perhaps certified copies are.

Anyway, this player had the following stat line as a 24 year old outfielder in the AL:

149 G
581 AB
76 R
165 H
25 2B
5 3B
19 HR
65 RBI
7 SB
119 K
.284 BA

Nothing staggering, but decent, yet one of his RC autos is apparently worth $120? I can only assume it is a SP, because this guy is no Albert Pujols!

Perhaps I have lost touch with all of the new, more expensive issues, the SPs and the other assorted trickery that makes these cards "worth" so much. Perhaps I am just cynical and assume this players career will settle in around the numbers he is producing now and won't excite much more than Chili Davis does anyone now!

Thanks to BB Reference, here is who this guy looks like so far...or is most similar to:

Herbert Perry
Sam Jethroe
Dwight Smith
Dick Kokos
Jody Gerut
Ernie Koy
Pedro Munoz
Johnny Rizzo
Rocco Baldelli
Matt Mieske

Through age 24, he looks a little better to his closest comparisons, but still...

Chili Davis
Dave Winfield
Reggie Smith
Corey Patterson
Sixto Lezcano
Ron Northey
Rick Monday
Lee Mazzilli
Ruppert Jones
Mark Kotsay

Nothing too exciting there, but Winfield. How can the demand be that great now??? Prospecting? The newest hot player? WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY MENTALITY?

I don't know what to think, but I am somewhat disappointed that the value is so high, because I do want one and certainly won't pay that kind of money for one.

He's got plenty of certified so far too it seems. I have my guess on which card you're talking about, and there are other Mariner issues you may keep an eye out for that sell considerably cheaper.

 

[mrmopar]

Well, I did get a Jones auto for my collection, so I can stop complaining for the moment. It is not a Mariner card, but it's still one I like. 2010 T-206 auto for $2.99 plus s/h!

Maybe I'll snag a Mariner copy later when he cools off.

 

[Sabrgeek]

I didn't want to call out the specific card, because a member here is offering it up. I left the player off as well for the same reason so as not to deter from his trade efforts.

Jones is the player.

I remember another Jones had all the tools too and caused quite a splash...Andruw Jones. What has he done for us lately and look at his prices!! They always come down, but it's hard to wait sometimes!!

Believe it or not; Andruw still has an outside shot at the HOF. He seems to be getting back some of his skills after the Dodgers disaster and if he can pull out one more big full year (not a couple of months) then I'll think you'll see a real HOF shot for him

Rich

 

[abncal]

hey hey hey, now hold on a sec... minus a little mitochodrial disorder in his legs, Rocco is a stellar ball player!!

Actually he is... oh how I wish "what could have beens" came true....

 

[mrmopar]

Andruw had a great career and put up some terrific numbers, but he was used as an example of what have you done for me lately. He is one of those fence sitters, who is probably not going to land in the HOF, but it could probably be argued for anyway. 407 HRs won't get him there alone and the rest of the stats don't stack up to today's exceedingly high expectations. 20-30 years ago, he is in for sure (Just look at another 407 HR mate, Duke Snider!!).

Believe it or not; Andruw still has an outside shot at the HOF. He seems to be getting back some of his skills after the Dodgers disaster and if he can pull out one more big full year (not a couple of months) then I'll think you'll see a real HOF shot for him

Rich

 

[valediction]

Andruw had a great career and put up some terrific numbers, but he was used as an example of what have you done for me lately. He is one of those fence sitters, who is probably not going to land in the HOF, but it could probably be argued for anyway. 407 HRs won't get him there alone and the rest of the stats don't stack up to today's exceedingly high expectations. 20-30 years ago, he is in for sure (Just look at another 407 HR mate, Duke Snider!!).

Even then, it took Duke a while to get in.

 

[Hawaiian BamBam]

i agree with the op and all the postings here. what i have learned in my over 30 years of collecting and my four 5,000 count boxes filled with could of, should of, woulds of type of players..aka players that never became the next babe ruth,albert pujols or nolan ryan......is that "hot" rookies are just too risky to invest in even a player like strasburg is "risky" i mean, he is going to miss the entire 2011 season....sure glad i didnt spend 20,000 on his rookie cards on the bay....this hobby has proven time and time again, that players are risky, i have stacks and stacks of cards of greg vaughn, kevin maas, todd van poppel, sam horn, mark prior, brien taylor, jerome walton, walt weiss, andy benes, scott elbert, travis buck, brent lillibridge, mike costanzo, edwar ramirez, gregg jeffries, greg blosser, well..you get the point! i think for example based on my three plus decades of collecting is, instead of paying $20,000 for a stephen strasburg auto when he is the hottest thing out there, wait a bit until he blows out his arm or becomes a brien taylor or mark prior, then you can get that same autograph for $2.00, instead of buying a $1,000 auto of the latest phenom that hits 60 home runs in double A, wait until he gets to the majors and hits for a .143 average, then you can get that same auto for $2-3 dollars. remember in 1989 when ron gant, jerome walton and kevin mass where scorching HOT? guess, what you can get all three autos on ebay for about $10 combined! learn from me, because i spent tens of thousands of dollars wasted on the next "nolan ryan" or the next "hank aaron" ive been there and done that and have tons of 5,000 count boxes of "useless" cards to prove it. what i do now is instead of spending for example $100.00 on the next best thing, or in hopes of "doubling" or "tripling" my money when this "cant miss" prospect "makes it"(9 out of 10 prospects never do make it for the record) ill spend that $100.00 on maybe a 1975 topps george brett rc and a 1975 topps robin yount rc, or a nice vintage card of hank aaron, willie mays or mickey mantle. to me that more of a solid investment. just my 2 cents worth, for what its worth!