Overpaying and the state of the market

[mrmopar]

I got home today and checked my ebay items, as I do every day. Apparently I forgot to load a snipe in on a press plate 1/1 Garvey. I had opened the bidding at $6.99 and stayed on top through last night. Somehow I forgot it and...well, you guessed it. I lost. Imagine that.

However my anger quickly gave way when I realized that crap like this gets artificially driven up, usually by 2 crazy buyers who must have it all. In this case, the final bid was $12 and change and there were 3 bids. My initial bid, one bid for $12 and the snipe that won it. Had I sniped in my normal range, I probably would have paid $50-70 for this or lost it for even more $$ perhaps. Who knows how high the winner went on his snipe?

I think I have won a Garvey 1/1 one time for less than that and some of the more plain ones may have sold in the $20-30 range in the past, but most of them end up selling for $50-$100 or more. It's just about always the same two bidders...me and another guy. One of us wins it at an inflated price and the other is the underbidder, with the next bidder significantly below both of us 98% of the time. You look at the next low bids and they are usually "reasonable" for what the item is.

This makes me want to stop buying all together, but I can't. I just can't let the stuff go for cheap to someone else, but I am sick of overpaying to win it myself!!! It's just so irritating that w/o this one rival, the cards would be relatively cheap and I'm sure he can think and say the same of me. Without us, there is no market for Garvey stuff!

 

[mattfieser]

LOL!! I do the same thing with another Bagwell guy. Whenever I see he has bid on something I am going after I expect to overpay or he will. It sucks, but sometimes when I do win even though I over payed it is that much more satisfying to me. Especially since the other dude is a Doctor and I am in the Army. Kinda weird I guess, but I totally understand where you are coming for.

 

[David K.]

Now days...I bid the amount I think it should go for and move on......if I win great..if I lose....I'll go for the next one! Best regards, David

 

[mrmopar]

I usually get extremely mad at myself for missing something like this, but I have come to realize that I can't get every single one. In this case, I had 2 of the 4 plates for this card already, so I really have one "unique" one already. If it was a plate I had none of, then I may have not forgiven myself as easily.

Still, it really makes you think. If this plate goes for $12 and change now, what will the next one go for if I don't even bid at all?

I know it's all about timing and at any given point, some guy might see it and think he has never seen a Garvey plate and he tosses a $40 bid out and he is a contender and he doesn't even collect Garvey per se. Still, it might sell for $10 like this one did. Makes me a little sad to think the many of the 1/1s I have really may not be worth much to anyone but me perhaps.

Now if I only I could let go and let someone win them for $10 w/o a second thought, then I could call my addiction cured.

 

[greyminis]

I agree with David. There is so much product it pays not to overpay. It helps to have a less narrow focus though.

 

[mintman2]

ah yeah, the dilema of the true supercollector

 

[theplasticman]

It happens haha. I've always had 5-6 guys like that on every player I collect but I've been able to do pretty well.

 

[potvin48]

There's someone out there that bids crazy high for Blake Dewitt low numbered stuff...It's blocking my ability to finish some of my Cubs sets.

 

[valediction]

I got home today and checked my ebay items, as I do every day. Apparently I forgot to load a snipe in on a press plate 1/1 Garvey. I had opened the bidding at $6.99 and stayed on top through last night. Somehow I forgot it and...well, you guessed it. I lost. Imagine that.

However my anger quickly gave way when I realized that crap like this gets artificially driven up, usually by 2 crazy buyers who must have it all. In this case, the final bid was $12 and change and there were 3 bids. My initial bid, one bid for $12 and the snipe that won it. Had I sniped in my normal range, I probably would have paid $50-70 for this or lost it for even more $$ perhaps. Who knows how high the winner went on his snipe?

I think I have won a Garvey 1/1 one time for less than that and some of the more plain ones may have sold in the $20-30 range in the past, but most of them end up selling for $50-$100 or more. It's just about always the same two bidders...me and another guy. One of us wins it at an inflated price and the other is the underbidder, with the next bidder significantly below both of us 98% of the time. You look at the next low bids and they are usually "reasonable" for what the item is.

This makes me want to stop buying all together, but I can't. I just can't let the stuff go for cheap to someone else, but I am sick of overpaying to win it myself!!! It's just so irritating that w/o this one rival, the cards would be relatively cheap and I'm sure he can think and say the same of me. Without us, there is no market for Garvey stuff!

Yeah, that has to be rough. At least you have some small consolation that it's going to a fellow Garvey fanatic. I remember there used to be a guy big into Griffey stuff, very deep pockets, almost never lost. It got to a point people would bid the guy up just to make him pay more, they'd bid $150 plus without having the money or even wanting the item just because they KNEW he'd outbid them, so they were going to make him pay. I kept hoping he'd just let them have it a few times

 

[Dilferules]

I had a fellow Trent Dilfer collector that this used to happen with. If I needed the card and he didn't, it would go for a reasonable price. If we both needed it, it would go for way too much with no bids coming even close to our 2. I very very rarely outbid him since I was a broke college student at the time...that's why I only own one Dilfer 1/1 (a printing plate). Since I got more disposable income I really can't remember the last time somebody outbid me on a Dilfer I really wanted. Of course stuff I want rarely shows up on eBay and it's been many years since there was a 1/1 on the site. Come on sellers, I'm ready to pay!

Anyways, I never let it get me down that my collection wasn't going to be as nice as his and I was paying "too much" for some cards.
Richard

 

[jaderock]

David K has the best advise...it happens to most player/set collectors. Although it would be nice to be the only "_____" collector in the world, that simply will NEVER be the case.

I went through you dilemma for more than a decade, but it's the price you pay for wanting something more than the next person. Heck Mark Brunell printing plates were 2-10x higher than players like Marino, Favre, Sanders, Emmitt and Rice from the same sellers for a GOOD 3-4 years. Talk about killing each other.

In the end, everything will even out - I'm sure you've had "steals" when the other guy had brainfart too.

 

[mrmopar]

I have not had many, that is for sure. If they hit ebay, I pay. I have had 3 different serious rivals and a few other part timers who have made it hard in the last decade plus.

Don't get me wrong, I pay what I am willing to pay and I am fortunate (or perhaps smart enough ) that I don't collect a more popular player. Then again, when you collect a superstar, you pretty much have to give into that fact much quicker. Specializing in a lesser collected player affords you more opportunity to dominate the market, but there is almost always some level of competition for anything out there.

I am probably more scorned by other Garvey collectors because of the amount of items I have won and the underbidders when I don't, usually don't get bargains either.

I think I am really starting to lose interest in the new stuff for real though. Time will tell, but there have been a number of recent "higher" end cards listed and relisted many times over becuase the asking prices are too high. 5 years ago, I would have probably puylled the trigger and bought them. Now I just laugh and watch them relist week after week after week. Sterling, Triple Treads, Tribute, Panini, etc. Some people will always try to get what they want/expect and not just take what the market allows, but these people I am referencing won't be selling their cards anytime soon most likely.

On the other hand, I am half tempted to chase the 72 Venezuelan stamp up now and I already have 2! The opening bid is $120! Those are truly scarce and unique and better than any new 1/1 in my mind.

David K has the best advise...it happens to most player/set collectors. Although it would be nice to be the only "_____" collector in the world, that simply will NEVER be the case.

I went through you dilemma for more than a decade, but it's the price you pay for wanting something more than the next person. Heck Mark Brunell printing plates were 2-10x higher than players like Marino, Favre, Sanders, Emmitt and Rice from the same sellers for a GOOD 3-4 years. Talk about killing each other.

In the end, everything will even out - I'm sure you've had "steals" when the other guy had brainfart too.