Basketball values gone wild

SymphonicMetal

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Not to be confused with the old "GIrls Gone Wild" ads.

I was in our LCS this evening and the new Basketball Becketts came out. Here are a few stunning price changes since last month's Basketball Beckett

1996-97 Topps Kobe RC went from $500 to $600
1996-97 SP Kobe RC From $40 to $100
1996-97Topps Allen Iverson RC $40 to $120
1995-96 Topps Garnett RC $15 to $125
1992-93 Topps Shaq RC From $8 to $100

I did not buy the new Beckett since I just picked a new one up 2 weeks ago but those are the price increases I remember off the top of my head. Knowing how things are going these days, those values may already be obsolete.
 

theguru14

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I think the state of sports cards is beyond any of our wildest dreams. When I came back last November it shocked the hell out of me what the values of certain cards where valued at and as a whole they are still going up. Now with the new stimulus package coming out soon I can see them going even higher.

The initial BV of the Kobe Topps RC was $3. When I left the hobby around 2010 or so I had it marked at $5. I come back in late November and the BV is at $500. o_O
 

SymphonicMetal

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I think the state of sports cards is beyond any of our wildest dreams. When I came back last November it shocked the hell out of me what the values of certain cards where valued at and as a whole they are still going up. Now with the new stimulus package coming out soon I can see them going even higher.

The initial BV of the Kobe Topps RC was $3. When I left the hobby around 2010 or so I had it marked at $5. I come back in late November and the BV is at $500. o_O
This tends to remind me of the late 80s and early 90s where cards were worth more than cash and that did not turn out well for the hobby. I know I am the pessimist in the room but I cannot see this surge continuing much longer before the bubble bursts..........granted I have been incorrectly predicting that for months.

One of the scary things is NONE of those cards I listed is scarce. They are not mass produced like the junk era cards were but they are not hard to find at all. For 30 years no one wanted these cards and suddenly they are going up exponentially in value?

I'd feel a lot better if these prices went up more gradually instead of in many times over in a short time span for the long term haelth of the hobby. I'll bet no one here would have bought a 1993-93 Topps Shaq RC for the full priceof $8 even a week or two ago and now they would gladly buy one for many times that in true "Chase the market" fashion.. The whole thing makes no sense.
 

cmcjr99

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how about these just in the past 2 weeks :

wade topps rc from 20 to 150 and chrome to 400
2004-05 topps chrome kobe to 120 , wade to 100 , and jalen rose from .75 to 20 due to lebron in the photo
2008-09 topps kobe to 800 and chrome 2000
2003-04 topps kobe to 50
2007-08 topps mcgrady to 15 and chrome to 60 (kobe in the background)
kobe bowman's best rc from 300 to 800 (under 30 last january)

so the madness has officially spread to the cameo cards...on that note i am officially seeking bulk lots of 2009-10 topps stephen jackson #82

edit to add - found that jackson/kobe cameo last night ...at 2 AM it was .60....now at 7:15 AM it has an up arrow to 1.00 dated monday the 8th...

fwiw , most 93-94 through 95-96 topps plus most 2008-09 and 2009-10 topps and chrome have begun to rise too...this dog still has legs i think...on a side note , while this hasnt really reached beyond basketball (other than a few specific players like brady and mahomes in football) i wonder if you noticed that most every notable rc in baseball from 1980-1990 began getting up arrows en masse about 2-3 weeks ago and now a few others like pujos and miggy are staring to go too...
 
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theguru14

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As of 3/8/21 basically all of LBJs Topps cards from 2003-04 to 2009-10 shot up in price. This means all cards associated with these years all shot up as well.
 
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theguru14

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This tends to remind me of the late 80s and early 90s where cards were worth more than cash and that did not turn out well for the hobby. I know I am the pessimist in the room but I cannot see this surge continuing much longer before the bubble bursts..........granted I have been incorrectly predicting that for months.

One of the scary things is NONE of those cards I listed is scarce. They are not mass produced like the junk era cards were but they are not hard to find at all. For 30 years no one wanted these cards and suddenly they are going up exponentially in value?

I'd feel a lot better if these prices went up more gradually instead of in many times over in a short time span for the long term haelth of the hobby. I'll bet no one here would have bought a 1993-93 Topps Shaq RC for the full priceof $8 even a week or two ago and now they would gladly buy one for many times that in true "Chase the market" fashion.. The whole thing makes no sense.
How long has this surge being going on for? When did it start? Nothing was produced more than the junk era cards. If I still had those cards I would have a life time worth of fire wood. :LOL: Can you believe that 1996-97 Topps Chrome Basketball initial release was retail only?o_O
 

SymphonicMetal

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I think the surge in basketball prices has been going on since May/June of 2020. At least that is when I noticed something going on. It seems to be due to a combination of factors. First was the Pandemic (nostalga for the good old days and boredom from being shut in and isolated), Kobe's death and the 10 part documentary about Micahael Jordan. The first indication of someth9ng being up was Scottie Pippen's RC going from $25 to $200 last Spring. I figured it was just a short term deal but nearly a year later things have accelerated to say the least.

The first indication I had of cards outside of basketball going up was when I saw the 1966 Topps Mantle listed at $500 in Beckett's Vintage. That was about $150 to $200 above its usual price and I thought it was an abberation so I passed on it in a local trade. Now it looks like vintage baseball has pretty much doubled since last Summer and vinatage basketball has gone up even more than that. For some odd reason football seems to be stagnant which is very weird since it is the #1 watched sport in America. One would think that would be the sport to skyrocket in value but that is not the case. That is where I'd put my money if I am buying cards........it is the path of least resistance right now.

I am glad to see Claude saying 1980-1990 Baseball RCs are trending upwards since may of those are undervalued. I as shocked to see the 1982 Topps Ripken RC was only $25 which is the lowest I have seen that in decades. I think many of those early to mid 1980s RCs are undervalued with many know nothings considering them junk. Yeah, they are junk but a majority of collectors do not seem to own them.
 

cjay101

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The sad thing is with market volatility you can’t even trade on BV on a lot of stuff because the premiums for sales are so high. This market is probably beckett price guides’ worst nightmare because it is forcing a lot of people to follow completed sales or similar versus just using a canned value.
 

SymphonicMetal

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The sad thing is with market volatility you can’t even trade on BV on a lot of stuff because the premiums for sales are so high. This market is probably beckett price guides’ worst nightmare because it is forcing a lot of people to follow completed sales or similar versus just using a canned value.
I always joke that my 2 week old Beckett's Basketball is more out of date today than my 2016 Besketball Beckett was out of date last year. It sounds crazy but it is true. The reason I rarely bought Beckett's monthly guides is they eliminated so many card issues and also that values on older cards rarely ever changed. I have no need of values on recent card issues so why buy rhe near useless guides.

Speaking of lightning fast price changes a couple of examples of trades I made illustrate that. In both trades the card values changed before they even arrived to their destinations. One was I traded a Topps Kobe to someone here because it had gone up to $60. Since it was $12 or $15 just months before, I looked at it as "found money".........in this case Monopoly money. By the time this card arrived at its destination it was $600.

And recently I wrapped up a trade by trading a $40 Topps Iverson Rc for a $40 SP Kobe RC. Since AI was $2.50 a year ago and the SP Kobe was $15, I decided to go for the historically more expensive Kobe in an even BV trade. By the time the Kobe got to me it was $100 so I figured I got lucky. Come to find out last night the AI RC is $120 (or is it $140?) now so the other trader made out better. LOL
 

SymphonicMetal

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Here is something that makes no sense.

I’m guessing most of these price rises will end up being Monopoly money although prices for new boxes and packs are astronomical and people are gladly paying the asking price for them………….God knows why but I have seen it numerous times this past year.

Here is an example of why these price rises are fraudulent with the 1977-78, 1978-79 and 1979-80 Topps basketball sets as am example. The sets are all 132 cards and they are valued at $100, $60 and $150 respectively. Commons are priced at .30 on all three sets so there are no scarce cards.

Just taking the cards valued $10 or more for each set here is the breakdown.

1977-78 Topps 6 cards totaling $140 including a $50 Dr. J The set is $100

1978-79 Topps 5 cards totaling $62. The set books for $60

1979-80 Topps 3 cards totaling $32 the set books for $150. ( WTF???)

Tell me that Becketts is not just randomly throwing prices out there getting people all excited on a lot of this stuff. Those 3 set values make no sense which makes me suspicious that the market will crash when more people figure out this scam………..both in pricing and grading.
 

cmcjr99

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2 or 3 quick things -

set values have almost always been a very small fraction of the cards cumulative values so thats nothing new....

beckett has a bad habit of not updating set values or headers which includes general values for commons , unlisted stars , semi stars , etc...

beckett also has quite a few mistakes in the opg including many cases of showing a card with a change on a set date that is not correct (96-97 tops chrome bulls tribute shows an up arrow from 4 to 80 lastb week but it actually has been 80 since last march...same for the 2004-05 topps lebrons...according to the opg they went from 4 to 150 last week , but i sold mine when they REALLY jumped to 150 last summer)
 

SymphonicMetal

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2 or 3 quick things -

set values have

beckett has a bad habit of not updating set values or headers which includes general values for commons , unlisted stars , semi stars , etc...

2 or 3 quick things -

set values have almost always been a very small fraction of the cards cumulative values so thats nothing new....
True. That is why sets are the most efficient and affordable way of buying cards outside of buying collections.

Beckett's does a horrible job of listing set prices. In both the Football Beckett's and the Beckett's Vintage Collector they did not list complete set prices for 1956 through 1960 Topps Football. The sets before and after that they did list the bvs on the sets. You'd think listing a set price wat teh top would be a very standard process but I guess not.

In the case I was citing the cumlative value of cards in the 1979-80 does not justify the high price of the set. Given the value of the single cards the 1977-78 should be $150, the 1978-79 $100 and the 1979-80 should be $60. I just cannot fathom how Beckett''s came up with $150 for that 1979-80 set!?!

One positive about all this price craziness is that it makes for interesting discussions about the hobby!
 

cmcjr99

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In the case I was citing the cumlative value of cards in the 1979-80 does not justify the high price of the set. Given the value of the single cards the 1977-78 should be $150, the 1978-79 $100 and the 1979-80 should be $60. I just cannot fathom how Beckett''s came up with $150 for that 1979-80 set!?!


more details on cumulative bv's of those 3 sets :
1977-78 280.70
1978-79 186.45
1979-80 133.75

i'd simply chalk this one up to an error in their data that has never been caught similar to a few sets - especially some mid-90's inserts that crashed in bv - ive seen over the years but whose headers still show data like $10 commons and a $200 set price but whose highest value card is now in the $5 range with a cumulative set value in the $50 range...i cant cite specific examples at the moment but i defintely have seen plenty examples ...also there are many barry bonds inserts that beckett crushed to the point they are now valued at a fraction of the commons...then there are the flat-out mistakes like the 88-89 fleer karl malone sticker...the entire set got big upward movement in february , but the opg shows that on february 11 the malone went down from 1,00 to 4.00 lo column and down from 2.50 to 1.00 hi column ...when you then go to that card's page it shows the same numbers but now says it was UP to 4 lo and down to 1 hi...then you go to the set page and see in the header that commons are just 1.50 , but the lowest single (malone aside) is mark aguirre at 8.00...every cardwent upon the 11th and they were very consistent...based on his value previously and what every other card with the same value was , the malone SHOULD have moved to 4 lo and 10 hi...in this case it's obvious they just omitted a 0 before the decimal and there's is no telling how long that will go uncorrected...
 
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