SPECULATORS...What are the card industry regrets??

[Beachbum]

This question came up in my mind and I wanted to know what the best and brightest on the Bench thought.

Give insight on one of these two topics...

1. What are the regrets of the card manufacturing industry in general?

Examples: The overproduction in the 80's/90's, cards that should have been S/N'd but weren't, etc.

2. What are the pitfalls and/or unintended consequences for the Topps company since getting rid of most of their competition?



No agenda here folks, just looking for good conversation. Thanks.

 

[Jeffo65]

Increase in the cost of packs.

 

[Beachbum]

Increase in the cost of packs.

Why? Did they loose a generation of collectors?

So kids today aren't buying because they are distracted with their smartphones and Facebook or they can't afford baseball cards?

 

[Dilferules]

Like you mean regrets by the card companies?

I don't think they regret the overproduction of the 80s/90s as the market at the time supported it. For the cost of packs...I don't think the cost of packs by itself drove people out of the hobby. It was that people want the best and they want to collect everything, so even if there is a low-cost product available, people will be frustrated about a different expensive product they can't buy. As long as there was ONE high cost product, people would have gotten frustrated and left. Once Upper Deck came around and showed some people would pay more for higher quality cards, it was over.

Also I think the industry may regret going down the road towards rarer and rarer inserts. I think a lot of hobbyists left when it became apparent that there was no way they could get every card of their player, and they were completists. 1993 Finest Refractors were the start of this, but it really hit home when you had 1996 Mirror Golds that they only made 30 of, and finally 1997 Flair Showcase Masterpiece 1/1s.

Ultimately there was no way the boom of the 80s/90s was sustainable, though. Cards were so popular because of baby boomer nostalgia, and nostalgia cannot sustain anything for very long. The adult money entering the hobby ruined it for kids, which in turn meant fewer people buying cards later on because they never collected as kids.

So really the only solution was to never have packs over a dollar, and never have any rare inserts, which would have been difficult because it was clearly something the market wanted. Also, if there wasn't a strike in 1994 or a steroid scandal that really would have helped.

As far as Topps having the exclusive license...I think there could be some regrets there if people show they will accept logo-less cards like Panini is doing. By not paying for the expensive MLB license, Panini and Upper Deck can make their products higher quality, with more expensive inserts like good relics or autographs for a lower price point.

Richard

 

[mrmopar]

It would seem the turning point was the UD entrance in 1989. They moved to a higher quality (and higher priced product) and that started a domino effect that I believe has fatally hurt the card industry. How many years did the industry survive on a reasonably priced, yet an acceptable product? I could probably do a quick search for pack prices in the late 80s, but I seem to remember them not being much more than $0.40-0.50 each before the beginning of the end. Even with choices, such as Leaf, Bowman, Fleer, Donruss and Score, it was all pretty much the same product with a different name and slightly different look. Although the 80s seem to have seen the greatest appreciation in value, cards always had been a relatively small group/hobby presence. I mean even when i was a kid, most of the other kids weren't collecting cards. i'd say I was in a minority even then. Adults did it as well, but the kids probably kept it alive as long as it has survived and if the kids have lost interest or have been priced out now for the most part, it stands to reason that as the adults age and leave the hobby through attrition, then it will slowly shrivel up as well.

I don't know if the card makers would have any regrets other than in relation to bottom line profits, but I regret that we didn't maintain a hobby that resembles the 70s/80s. Lots of choices for both major card brands as well as a seemingly endless variety of oddball issues, mostly affordable product, lots of unique/test products that kept things interesting. The UV/Premium revolution changed it all. Higher quality, higher pack prices, then slip in some really tough autographs, serial numbered Elite inserts, then inserts in general, 1/1s, game used and so on. Heck, I really love autographs, but that has also lead to the ridiculous pack prices and the mentality that these pieces of cardboard are no longer just a kids play thing, but a valuable keepsake and potential investment. Give me the non-certified vintage signed cards all day and take away my pack certified cards and i will still remain forever happy.

As for Topps, they are probably perfectly happy racking up profits in the NOW. It may be a short term thing, then again maybe the card industry can find a way to survive for another 60+ years. I guess only time will tell.

 

[Beachbum]

Good points, the only counter I would have mrmopar in my personal situation was that between 1982 and 1988 everybody that I knew in my neighborhood and at school were buying cards and trading them at recess, between class periods, etc. We couldn't get to the Cork 'N Bottle convenience store fast enough after school to bust new packs. If I was in some small minority it sure didn't feel like it.

 

[Dilferules]

I think some of the "blame" goes to Pokemon, Magic the Gathering, and video games as well. Those are some competing hobbies that have stolen sports card attention from children since the 80's.

Richard

 

[valediction]

Pitfalls/unintended consequences of Topps being the exclusive: Anything negative that happens is automatically because Topps is the exclusive, and people overlook that Topps and other companies had many of the same issues when Topps wasn't the exclusive.

 

[Beachbum]

I think some of the "blame" goes to Pokemon, Magic the Gathering, and video games as well. Those are some competing hobbies that have stolen sports card attention from children since the 80's.

Richard

yeah, I'm so sports-centric that I seem to forget about those. Good point!

 

[mrmopar]

I suppose by that time, I was moving into a new school district (82), then entering HS (84) and then finally off to the USN (87), so I was often in a position where i probably was not seeing the level of collecting first hand any longer. I was not really even collecting at an active level any longer when UD entered the market. From 87-88, I bought a few packs here and there and my mom would set aside things for when I came home on leave, but being active duty and moving around quite a bit, I just stopped buying cards. First it was bootcamp & schools that moved me from Florida to Connecticut to California in the span of less than 2 years, then being stationed on a submarine in Hawaii...I didn't have any place to keep them! I really only came back around 93 when I got out of the Navy and returned home. By that time, the collecting world had gotten quite crazy.

I know as a kid when I first started (78), it seemed that everyone dabbled in it a bit in my neighborhood for a while, but that quickly gave way to other interests and only the die hard collectors continued.

and

Good points, the only counter I would have mrmopar in my personal situation was that between 1982 and 1988 everybody that I knew in my neighborhood and at school were buying cards and trading them at recess, between class periods, etc. We couldn't get to the Cork 'N Bottle convenience store fast enough after school to bust new packs. If I was in some small minority it sure didn't feel like it.

 

[Beachbum]

I suppose by that time, I was moving into a new school district (82), then entering HS (84) and then finally off to the USN (87), so I was often in a position where i probably was not seeing the level of collecting first hand any longer. I was not really even collecting at an active level any longer when UD entered the market. From 87-88, I bought a few packs here and there and my mom would set aside things for when I came home on leave, but being active duty and moving around quite a bit, I just stopped buying cards. First it was bootcamp & schools that moved me from Florida to Connecticut to California in the span of less than 2 years, then being stationed on a submarine in Hawaii...I didn't have any place to keep them! I really only came back around 93 when I got out of the Navy and returned home. By that time, the collecting world had gotten quite crazy.

I know as a kid when I first started (78), it seemed that everyone dabbled in it a bit in my neighborhood for a while, but that quickly gave way to other interests and only the die hard collectors continued.

and

yes it will be different for all of us based off our age, I entered junior high school in 1985 which as a 13 year old was very interested in collecting cards. It grew for me up to 1988 with just a massive amount of these 80's cards. I entered high school in the fall of '88 and I bought a factory set of 1989 topps and then girls took over baseball cards.

Well now I only chase my wife around the house so its back to cards!

 

[dale]

To me the "rookie card prospectors" did more harm than good. They came over from the coin and stamp world, convinced the manufacturers that collectors wanted more rookie cards than relief pitchers, and that an ungraded card is worthless. Those prospectors have now moved on to ruin other hobbies and left the rest of us true collectors to try to rebuild our hobby. Good luck finding a card of a lefty relief specialist to complete your team set nowadays; in the sixties and early 70's it was a given that you could get a card of every Chico Salmon or Dick Tracewski that played for your favorite team.

 

[jaderock]

Regrets-getting rid of the gum in packs!

Consequences of less competition - stagnation, satisfied with the status quo.

 

[mrmopar]

It's funny, but after starting to chase team themed autographs, you come to appreciate those sets like UD 40 Man, Topps Total and many of the Pacific sets of the 90s and 00s for capturing unique cards of certain players, often the only appearance they may have made with a certain team. Oddball sets were good for that too. As a team collector, you might value a Tom Prince card just as much as you do Mike Piazza or Hideo Nomo!

This is more an example of a sellers impressive optimism, but check this out. Although I would buy this card for a REASONABLE price for my non-discriminating Garvey collection, this is the kind of junk that has helped with the decline of the hobby...Super low print run, no logos or photos and an odd grouping to say the least other than they shared a time with the dodgers and the two sides are two different eras.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2012-SP-SIG...0916449790?pt=US_Baseball&hash=item43bbf8bdfe